7.8% SF Rent Growth in Q2 Not As Clear Cut As It Seems

MPF Research recently reported a 7.8% jump in average rent in Q2, and that data was picked up in the WSJ today along with some anecdotes about the market conditions for renters, developers and landlords.

Naturally we looked to our data (above) to see if we could glean any additional insights beyond what’s already been reported. What we found was pretty interesting. Our data shows pretty much the same amount of rent growth in Q2, but the chart shows that the beginning of Q2 was actually the bottom of a rare downturn in San Francisco rents. Additionally, it seems that most of the growth happened in the first half of the quarter, and then rents flattened out a bit in the second half.

I think what this shows is that although the rent growth in San Francisco is robust, it’s not growing at rate of 7.8% per quarter. Perhaps more interestingly, although the general trend in the long term is up, rents seem to fluctuate up and down a bit in the short term.

The chart above (it’s actually a screenshot from our Competitive Intelligence product) shows an exponentially smoothed time series of the median price per square feet of all the apartment listings we could get our hands on in that timeframe. We’re indexing new listings every day and updating our time series in real time, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on this.

We’d love to hear your feedback on this post here, and as always you can check out our apartment deal ratings using our free service, RentMarket.

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